CPSM Study Cheats 2A – 4 Primary Forecasting Techniques

Forecasting is part of the 2nd CPSM Exam. It is important that every supply chain professional must know about forecasting because this helps organizations plan for the future. Some professionals employ a subjective criteria and often amount resort to wild guesses or wishful thinking. A wise professional usually base forecasting on a measurable, historical quantitative data, which in turn is given greater credence analysts and potential investors.

It is important to note that there is no forecasting tool that can predict the future with complete certainty, however, they remain essential in estimating an organization’s forward prospects.


CPSM Study Cheats Forecasting Techniques

Here is a list of primary forecasting techniques:

Delphi Technique

The RAND corporation developed Delphi technique in the late 1950s. This technique involves a group of experts, which respond to series of questionnaires, which are kept unaware of each other. The first set of questionnaires is compiled while the second questionnaires are based on the results of the experts who reevaluate their responses based on their first questionnaire.

Scenario Writing

This type of forecasting involves generation of different outcomes based on different starting criteria. The forecaster decides on the most likely outcome from the numerous scenarios presented. Scenario writing usually yields best, worst and middle options.

Subjective Approach

Forecasters are allowed to predict outcomes that are based on subjective thoughts and feelings. This session usually uses brainstorming sessions to generate ideas and to solve problems casually, free from criticism and peer pressure.

This forecasting technique is useful especially when there are constraints that prohibit objective forecasts.

Time-Series Forecasting

This is a quantitative strategy. It gauges information or data gathered over time to identify the trends. The information may be assumed control over any interim: hourly; day by day; week by week; month to month; yearly; or more. Pattern, cyclical, occasional and unpredictable make up the time series. It is frequently indicated as an upward- or descending slanting line to speak to expanding or diminishing patterns, individually. Cyclical parts lie above or underneath the pattern line and rehash for a year or more. The business cycle delineates a cyclical part. Occasional segments are like cyclicals in their dull nature, yet they happen in one-year periods. The yearly increment in gas costs amid the late spring driving season and the relating abatement amid the winter months is an illustration of a regular occasion. Eccentric segments happen arbitrarily and can’t be anticipated.

Secure your future in SUPPLY CHAIN! Become a Certified Professional in Supply Chain Management and earn 8% more! Visit www.cpsmtraining.com for more details

adr international Alabama Alaska american production and inventory control american production and inventory control society American Samoa apics courses apics inventory managemen apics inventory management Arizona Arkansas association for operations management Blog boot bootcamp business buyer California camp certification for supply chain management certification in scm certification in supply chain certification in supply chain management certification supply chain management certified certified in supply management certified profession in supply management certified purchasing manager certification chain Colorado Connecticut council of supply chain management courses cpm cpsm cpsm certification csm Delaware District of Columbia e sourcing tools exam Executives florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana institute institute supply chain instructor development program inventory purchasing Iowa ism it procurement consultants jpmorgan global manufacturing pmi Kansas Kentucky leveraging diversity in the workplace logistics Louisiana Maine management manufacturing report Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Northern Marianas Islands Ohio Oklahoma online Oregon Pennsylvania pmi ism prep preparation procurement procurement classes procurement consultants procurement consulting procurement courses online procurement learning procurement negotiation training procurement seminars procurement workshops production inventory control professional purchasing & inventory management purchasing and inventory management purchasing articles purchasing classes purchasing education and training purchasing inventory purchasing inventory management inventory purchasing scpro seminars sourcing consultants sourcing consulting sourcing services supplier diversity certification supply supply chain supply chain certification supply chain certifications supply chain management supply chain management certifications supply chain management professional supply management courses supply management tools technical sourcing international the association for operations management the council of supply chain management professionals training Viewpoints workshop